Friday 13 November 2015

My thoughts on the Institute of Directors annual conference

The Institute of Directors annual conference began with a talk from James Sproule, the IoD’s chief economist. Sproule’s discussion about how governments must live within their means was an interesting start to the night. This point was especially poignant given that, in my opinion, Guernsey is beginning to feel pressure on our financial sector from the UK, this is evident in the slowdown in the housing market. He then went on to talk of how demographics are one of the few things that can be predicted in the longer term with any reliability. I think this is a good thing as an important part of combating the issues caused by our changing demographics is our ability to foresee them and respond proactively.

Tim Harford, whose column in in the weekend FT is a personal favourite, then spoke. He talked about how we currently have a good age pyramid, with few pensioners and many 40 to 60 year old high earners. This combined with the fact that the issue of demographics is being taken seriously is, in Harford’s eyes, a good sign. I agree that we do take our changing demographics seriously, but that this must be combined with effective policy.

We were then treated to a presentation by Chris Brock of Island Global Research. This presentation looked at islands generally and how Guernsey sits in relation to them. I was rather worried to see that Guernsey is entering the ‘Crisis’ stage of the island lifecycle. This worry was mitigated by the fact that Brock suggests that the most forward thinking islands are the most likely to succeed, and I think the topic of debate this year is a sign Guernsey is looking forward.

After dinner the debate began, led by Sarah Montague, the debates’ moderator. Her ability to marshal along the conversation kept the debate flowing smoothly, and her understanding of the issues Guernsey faces was evident in her probing questions. She first introduced us to the panellists: Mel Carvill; President of PPF Partners; Wendy Dorman, the chairman of the Jersey IoD; Jonathan Le Tocq, Guernsey’s Chief Minister; Jane St Pier, chair of Young People Guernsey and Geoff Miller, a director at GLI Finance Limited.

I would like to take a moment to congratulate Le Tocq on standing up very well under the pressure of what felt like most of the questioning. His talk of needing more flexibility to attract the right people is something I agree with, and the comments that digital tech has much potential is something I personally agree strongly with given my interests in technical industry.

Miller brought an insight into how business leaders feel about Guernsey, saying that you need certainty if you bring jobs into the island and that there are problems with people struggling to get onto the island. This issue of bringing in outside talent is something that Le Tocq said he was working on addressing with the new Population Management Scheme. Whether or not this new scheme addresses all of the concerns Geoff raised is something that only time will tell.

Le Tocq also pointed out that Jersey has experienced an increase in unemployment; he attributed this to too high a rate of population growth. I have mixed feelings on increasing our population; I feel that we must allow talented and specialised individuals onto our island, especially if we are to aspire to become a technical centre. On the other hand I agree with Le Tocq that we must we careful in how we approach this inflow of new islanders.

Miller’s statement that the ‘writing is on the wall’ for certain financial sectors is something I agree with. We are coming under ever increasing pressure from the UK and must be prepared for some difficult change ahead.

As a young person I am aware that changes to pensions will have a large impact on myself. Brock suggested that people should have a second pension which Montague suggested would be unfair on the youth, as previously the state's pension was sufficient to live off but must now be supplemented by private savings. I would tend to disagree with this sentiment; I feel that though these changes would be hard in the short term, going forward they would provide more control over how we prepare for the future.

I believe that we have a difficult few years ahead of us; concerns about the stability of our financial sector are combined with an aging population. These issues are not insurmountable though, and I will echo a point from Harford: we have faced similar problems before, in the 70’s the falling agricultural industry spelt disaster for Guernsey. I believe if we, as a society, maintain the resilience that St Pier says we must foster in the young we will not only survive but thrive.

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